What's common to Modi's win and BJP's 'Indian Shining' loss

Nothing's common except for how Exit Pollsters got their predictions completely wrong.

The reasons behind both these 'off-the-mark' predictions again, don't have anything in common. BJP's India shining campaign was coined for general elections in India. No research agency in India has the resources to cover a sample size that truly represents the diverse length and breadth of India. Predictions were made sitting in Ivory towers, never realising that the battle is fought in the dusty by lanes and the scorching rural sides in India.

When it came to predicting the Gujarat election, there was a significant percentage of voters who refused to reveal their choice of candidate during the exit poll. Guess, they voted Modi. And didn't tell, 'cos they were angry at how the rest of India, and especially the media had painted a gory picture of their favourite leader.

The larger implication of these researcher's failures, point to the complexities one faces, while trying to decipher India and its polity. The real story here is that no one knows. Especially the researcher who is truly oblivious to the 'real India'.


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