Skip to main content

What's common to Modi's win and BJP's 'Indian Shining' loss

Nothing's common except for how Exit Pollsters got their predictions completely wrong.

The reasons behind both these 'off-the-mark' predictions again, don't have anything in common. BJP's India shining campaign was coined for general elections in India. No research agency in India has the resources to cover a sample size that truly represents the diverse length and breadth of India. Predictions were made sitting in Ivory towers, never realising that the battle is fought in the dusty by lanes and the scorching rural sides in India.

When it came to predicting the Gujarat election, there was a significant percentage of voters who refused to reveal their choice of candidate during the exit poll. Guess, they voted Modi. And didn't tell, 'cos they were angry at how the rest of India, and especially the media had painted a gory picture of their favourite leader.

The larger implication of these researcher's failures, point to the complexities one faces, while trying to decipher India and its polity. The real story here is that no one knows. Especially the researcher who is truly oblivious to the 'real India'.


Popular posts from this blog

Situational Involvement of Consumers

There are two types of involvement that consumers have with products and services, Situational and Enduring. Situational involvement as the term suggests, occurs only in specificsituations whereas Enduring involvement is continuous and is more permanent in nature.

Decisions to buy umbrellas in India are driven by the onset of Indian monsoon. Monsoon rains arrived in India over the South Andaman Sea on May 10 and over the Kerala coast on May 28, three days ahead of schedule. But then, after a few days of rain, South India is witnessing a spate of dry weather. Temperatures are soaring in the north of India. The Umbrella companies in the state of Kerala are wishing for the skies to open up. So is the farming community and manufacturers of rural consumer products whose product sales depend totally on the farming community. The Met. department has deemed this dry spell as 'not unusual'.

India's monsoon rains have been static over the southern coast since last Tuesday because of a…

Prior Hypothesis Bias

Prior Hypothesis bias refers to the fact that decision makers who have strong prior beliefs about the relationship between two variables tend to make decisions on the basis of those beliefs, even when presented with the evidence that their beliefs are wrong. Moreover, they tend to use and seek information that is consistent with their prior beliefs, while ignoring information that contradicts these beliefs.

From a strategic perspective, a CEO who has a strong prior belief that a certain strategy makes sense might continue to pursue that strategy, despite evidence that it is inappropriate or failing.

Ref : Strategic Management : An Integrated Approach, 6e, Charles W L Hill, Gareth R Jones

Consumer Spending

Carpe Diem Blog: From Visual Economics, a graphical representation appears above (click to enlarge) of Consumer Expenditures in 2007, using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Note that total spending on food ($6,133), clothing ($1,881) and housing ($16,920) represented 50% of consumer expenditures and 30% of income before taxes in 2007. In 1997 by comparison, 51.1% of consumer expenditures were spent on food, clothing and housing, and 44.6% of income before taxes was spent on food, clothing and housing (data here).