Worst Predictions, circa 2008

1. "A very powerful and durable rally is in the works. But it may need another couple of days to lift off. Hold the fort and keep the faith!" -- Richard Band, editor, Profitable Investing Letter, Mar. 27, 2008.
At the time of the prediction, the Dow Jones industrial average was at 12,300. By late December it was at 8,500.

2. AIG "could have huge gains in the second quarter." -- Bijan Moazami, analyst, Friedman, Billings, Ramsey, May 9, 2008.
AIG wound up losing $5 billion in that quarter and $25 billion in the next. It was taken over in September by the U.S. government, which will spend or lend $150 billion to keep it afloat.

3. "I think this is a case where Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are fundamentally sound. They're not in danger of going under I think they are in good shape going forward." -- Barney Frank (D-Mass.), House Financial Services Committee chairman, July 14, 2008.
Two months later, the government forced the mortgage giants into conservatorships and pledged to invest up to $100 billion in each.

4. "The market is in the process of correcting itself." -- President George W. Bush, in a Mar. 14, 2008 speech.
For the rest of the year, the market kept correcting and correcting and correcting.

5. "No! No! No! Bear Stearns is not in trouble." -- Jim Cramer, CNBC commentator, Mar. 11, 2008.
Five days later, JPMorgan Chase took over Bear Stearns with government help, nearly wiping out shareholders.

Read more of Peter Coy's list here.

Also note what Rick Moran says; 'A real challenge would be to come up with any accurate predictions at all during 2008. And don't say "Paul Krugman." Krugman proves the million monkey theory of economic forcasting; eventually, if you predict doom and gloom often enough, you get it right.'

Comments

vishanth said…
"No! No! No! Bear Stearns is not in trouble."

Hilarious!

By the way sir did you read the website I mentioned? Does have some language but the satire is quite amazing.
Prof.Ray Titus said…
Vishanth,

The site URL slipped...Pls. post it to me. Wud be there right away. Thanx.
vishanth said…
Sure sir, the url is www.leveragedsellout.com and the guy even has a song called "Damn, its good to be a banker" (Video on youtube). It in fact the name of the book he has written. It's pretty hilarious and if u want the lyrics you can find it at www.portal-a.com/banker2. But I should issue a language alert here :)

And wish u a great new year!!
vishanth said…
Oh sorry, the song is Damn, it feels good to be a banker.
Prof.Ray Titus said…
Thanks, V. The site's bang on.

The best for the year :)
vishanth said…
This comment has been removed by the author.
vishanth said…
Knew you would like it! Shame the song cannot be posted in the weekend pick though :)

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